Race Predictions - F1 Australian GP 2025

Welcome back, F1 fans! Like so many of us, I am super excited to see the opener of this year's Formula 1 season in Australia.

After watching qualifying and doing some research, these are my predictions.

1. The winner will not come from the top four on the grid.

Why?

• The top four all have something to prove!
  • It's a new year for McLaren, one where senior driver Norris does not have the advantage. Saying goodbye to papaya rules, and my prediction is that we'll see a Alonso/Hamilton 2007 like showdown for the first twelve or so races of the season. With this being Piastri's home race, he'll be primed to win. Whether or not that means he'll lose some of his characteristic cool-headedness or not remains to be seen.
  • Verstappen, starting P3, is a bit of a question mark. While Verstappen won his fourth title, this is a new year, and it's very clear that Red Bull are not happy with this year's car. His teammate, Lawson, is starting from the back, so no aid there. Though it is most likely going to be a wet race, it doesn't mean we'll see a redux of Brazil 2024. With the unknown of the car and the want to keep his first position in the WDC going, we could see Verstappen make a mistake.
  • Then we get to Russell. George Russell's first outing as the senior driver on Mercedes went swimmingly. Last year we saw the Mercedes struggle in the heat and thrive in the cool. With the temperatures dropping from 31 c (89 F) to an estimated 16c (60F), we could see the car itself thrive. Russell did mention some heat in the cockpit in free practice, and this could be the success point.
    • However, there is no love lost currently between Verstappen and Russell after last year's clash in Qatar. Though Verstappen is an elite racer, sometimes he will choose to sabotage an opponent if he knows he cannot win. Russell being the thorn in his side and unafraid to challenge him could send both ricocheting away from the top step.

2. Ferrari has the advantage, and one of their two drivers will see the top step.

The reasoning for this is obvious. Though Ferrari didn't perform as well as hoped in qualifying, the configuration of the car may be more geared towards a wet race with race standings in mind. The points do not come until Sunday and Vasseur, the Team Principal, is well aware of that.

On top of that, they are away from the tangle that will happen in P1-P4 and the aftermath that may come to those in P5 - P6 (Tsunoda and Albon). With space to navigate away, it gives Leclerc and Hamilton the advantage of anticipating the carnage and not being a part of it.

Both drivers are hungry for a win, but both are good at being clean with their teammates. Leclerc's seniority within the team dictates that he sets the tone, and we have seen Hamilton develop over the past seven years into a driver that truly respects his teammate and will drive clean. But Hamilton is still learning the car, and therefore the top step may be out of his reach.

3. The back will be as messy as the front.

Five of the six rookies make up the back seven of the grid. With it being a wet race, ego driven rookies with something to prove could easily be led into danger.

Albert Park is not an easy track to start on, like Bahrain. It has a lot of elements that are difficult for even the most skilled of drivers.

Another point before I get into the rookies is that Aston Martin has both of their drivers sitting ahead of the rookies. It seems that the car hasn't been changed since the end of last season, so those unfamiliar with dealing with the Aston tractors may be held up by that no matter what.

• Since he signed, Doohan has had the cloud of doom over his head. Allegedly only signed for six races, the Australian will want to prove his merit in his first home GP. With someone like Briatore as an advisor and a well liked driver like Colapinto in the wings, a good performance will be clutch.
• Bortoleto, the man who won both F2 and F3 as a rookie, is in P15. Of all of the rookies, I truly see him being in the points. Last year's Sauber was a struggle for all, and outperforming his veteran teammate in that car is impressive. Yet two drivers behind him in better cars are desperate for a strong start, and he could be tangling with hotter heads.
• So much hangs on young Antonelli's shoulders. Touted as the next Max Verstappen, he failed to make it out of Q1 when his teammate starts in P4 and barely missed pole. Though he has driven the equivalent of a GP many times over in testing, he has not driven a full race. While many see him as a wunderkind, even Verstappen competed a full season in F3 and had a few races in a backmarker team. On top of that, having the winner and runner up of his F2 season also on the grid (Bortoleto, Hadjar), maybe there will be some visual as to why Antonelli didn't reign supreme in that series last year. Though there are a lot of elements that could spell success, there are a few that could also spell out failure at this first race.
  • However, I am fully willing to eat crow if Antonelli does well.
• Lawson. Lawson, Lawson, Lawson. There has been a lot of dialogue around the Kiwi's elevation to the senior team. Once again, it shows that Red Bull made a stumble in promoting Lawson over Tsunoda. From an outsider perspective, it's clear that the racism element thrives in RBR, but even looking at the grid, it's clear that there is an issue. Both Racing Bulls are far ahead of Lawson; Tsunoda in P5, Hadjar in P11 in what is supposed to be the younger sister team. Lawson also made very few friends last year on the grid. His uncompromising attitude may have him winning other series, but a lot of the senior drivers were who he managed to rattle. I, for one, would not want to piss of Alonso. Lawson has done so; with Alonso ahead of him this race, I would be surprised to see Lawson pass the Aston driver.
• Bearman's troubles do not come from his lack of skill. It seems that Haas have gone awry with developing their car, as both drivers are struggling with the gearbox. I do think both Haases will retire, through no fault of Bearman or Ocon's. For someone who showed strongly in his debut, I think the lesson he will learn from Haas is patience.

So, with the above knowledge, here are my predictions.

Realistic

• Leclerc P1, Hamilton P2, Piastri P3. 8 DNFs; at least one Aston and one Sauber, both Haases and Lawson. One Williams will start strong but have an issue outside of their control and finish P11 or P12.

Hopeful

• Hamilton P1, Leclerc P2, Tsunoda P3. I think a majority of F1 fans would love to see Tsunoda's hard work pay off, and to showcase his development against top teams would be lovely. Only 6 DNFs, both Haases.

Delusional

• 33.
• JUST KIDDING! Hamilton P1, Albon P2, Tsunoda P3. Hadjar and Bortoleto in the points. Only 4 DNFs.

So, what are you expecting from the pinnacle of motorsport, reader? No matter the outcome, I know that this race will be one for the books!